TBW Free #1: Can bitcoin bounce back?

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THE BIG NEWS

What to remember this week

The heart of Paris beats to the rhythm of crypto!

For its 4th edition, the Paris Blockchain Week Summit (PBWS) has set up shop in the Palais Brongniart, which is none other than... the former Paris Stock Exchange. What a wink! Yesterday, The Big Whale attended the first day of the NFT event. It was well attended, with some fine stands, but it was clear that this highly specialised conference was still finding its feet. In fact, the PBWS really kicks off this morning (and for two days) with some very big American and Asian speakers like China's Changpeng Zhao. According to our information, the boss of Binance, the biggest exchange platform on the planet, hasn't just come to admire the Eiffel Tower. He will also be unveiling details of his long-awaited incubator (to be based at Station F in Paris) and confirming the opening of his French offices. We'll tell you all about it in Thursday's premium edition.

Terra devours bitcoins

For the past few weeks, the Singaporean organisation Luna Foundation Guard, in charge of developing the Terra protocol, has been buying bitcoins in astronomical quantities. It holds around 40,000 worth 1.7 billion dollars. This is the 19th largest Bitcoin wallet in the world since its latest harvest announced last week. You'd almost think they were playing whale (and we know all about that). The project has set out to back part of the reserve of its UST dollar stablecoin with bitcoins. Until now, its value has been based on a complex mechanism that involves destroying or creating LUNA, Terra's native token, according to demand for its stablecoins. In our opinion, this is really interesting news, because the biggest stablecoins on the planet are almost all backed by reserves made up of 'traditional' currencies, and above all the dollar.

Jack Dorsey wants his own 100% eco-friendly mining farm

Since he let go of the reins at Twitter to concentrate on the Bitcoin ecosystem, there's been no stopping Jack Dorsey. His latest project? To set up a mining farm in Texas with the US company Blockstream, run by one of the leading figures in the ecosystem, Adam Back. The project was revealed a few days ago. The future experiment has three special features: it will run 100% on solar energy. This isn't a first, but given the ambition of the project it's interesting to note. Anyone will be able to check the facility's energy consumption. That's a first. Another new element: the mining farm will run on photovoltaic panels (3.8 megawatts) and batteries (12 megawatt hours) supplied by a certain... Elon Musk.

THE BIG ANALYSIS

Can Bitcoin bounce back? (By Pierre Crypto, independent trader and analyst)

After several months of consolidation and with no clearly defined daily trend, Bitcoin has - as it knows so well how to do! - a leap of 25% in the space of three weeks (from 13 to 29 March) before falling by a further 18% in the last few days.

While this development may seem disappointing to some of you, the movement will not have been in vain. In fact, it has enabled us to validate various levels for this new quarter as it gets underway!

The first level: $44,500-45,500

After serving as support throughout December 2021, 2022 began with the loss of this level. This was followed by 3 months of consolidation during which the $44,500-$45,500 zone was tested several times, confirming the importance and resistance of this level. In recent weeks, one of Bitcoin's main bullish assumptions has been its ability to break through this level and turn resistance into support. Despite a rapid rise supported by repeated purchases by MicroStrategy boss Michael Saylor and Terra co-founder Do Kwon, Bitcoin was unable to hold the 44,500-45.500, thus invalidating this bullish scenario...

The second level: $40,500-41,500

There is nothing totally unfamiliar about this level for those of you who have been interested in the market for at least a year. In January 2021, it acted as resistance, putting an end to a rather extraordinary initial rally that had propelled it a few months earlier from $10,000 to $40,000. In May-July 2021, it acted again in resistance, for more than 3 months. In September 2021, it acted as support before a final rally for the year 2021, taking Bitcoin to a new all-time high of close to $70,000. As with the 1st level mentioned above, Bitcoin has been unable to protect this level for the time being, confirming the market's recent weakness. For many, the area separating the 1st from the 2nd level (so $40,500-45,500) is a "no trade" zone or short-term horizon trade (scalps).

The third level: $37,000-38,000

Since the start of 2022, one of the main questions for market observers and speculators has been: will we see Bitcoin at $30,000 again in 2022? For many, the loss of the 1st level and rapidly of the 2nd level in January, coupled with the end of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and rising tensions in Ukraine, offered an environment conducive to a rapid continuation downwards. This was not the case, with the appearance in particular of a heavily defended level, our 3rd level: $37,000-38,000.

The Bitcoin price since December 2021:

What explains this downward pressure?

Of course, that's what you're wondering, but it's always complicated to come up with exact explanations for certain market movements, especially when it comes to bitcoin. Is it a risky asset or a safe haven? That's the question we're all asking ourselves. While in the longer term it could evolve as a safe haven (against inflation and the crisis), it would seem that it is still its facet as a risky asset correlated to the equity markets that wins out in the short term.

Which altcoins are showing resilience in this complicated sequence?

Despite the appearance of some opportunities (LUNA, a few NFTs, etc.) and Ethereum performing much better than Bitcoin (20% over the same period), the altcoin market remains unstable. I personally have no altcoins on my radar at the moment, with my main focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

THE BIG JOB

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THE BIG AGENDA

Important events for the next 7 days

Wednesday and Thursday. The Paris Blockchain Week Summit, one of the biggest Web3 conferences organised in France, is holding its 3rd edition at the Palais Brogniart in Paris. Learn more.

Friday. The Kryptosphere Blockchain Summit is a day of conferences, where you'll find the best of the crypto ecosystem (particularly on DeFi). It all takes place at the Espace Saint-Martin in Paris (3rd). Learn more.

THE BIG TEASING

Tomorrow on The Big Whale Premium: the ultimate guide to declaring your cryptos

The dreaded moment has arrived, but just as well we've bent over backwards with the pope of crypto taxation, Alexandre Lourimi (ORWL), to answer your most important (and technical) questions! We've picked out the 18 biggest sticking points that all of you with digital assets have to grapple with: the accounts you can keep hidden, tricks to avoid being taxed, the question of income from DeFi, staking, you name it! Our aim was to provide you with the most comprehensive and straightforward guide possible, the guide you'll want to recommend to everyone you know.

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