TBW Free #2: Waiting for Bitcoin

Read all about it in The Big Whale's second free newsletter.

April 20, 2022

Hello everyone 👋

You're reading the free edition of The Big Whale 🐳

With this version, you've got the essentials to learn how to swim in the ocean of Web3. And when you're ready to explore the depths, subscribe to our Premium edition (sent out Thursday morning) for our exclusive investigations and news. In the meantime, we've already got some cool stories for you, and an analysis from the excellent Laëtitia Bonaventure (who writes to us from across the Atlantic).


What to remember this week

👉 The Ethereum Foundation's (fat) mattress

The Ethereum Foundation published its accounts on Monday for the first time since its creation in 2014. While no one had too many doubts about the financial health of the organisation that supports the second-largest blockchain on the planet, many of us (especially Gregory) wondered what was actually in the coffers. And the result is quite interesting 🚀. In total, the foundation based in Bern (Switzerland) has $1.6 billion, 81% of which is in cryptos and 99% of which is ETH. A considerable sum that enables it to fund developers and improvements to the protocol. By 2022, Ethereum has set itself the goal of successfully migrating from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, a much more energy-efficient consensus mechanism. However, one of its members announced on 13 April that this change, initially expected for June, had been postponed... Technical problem or lack of resources? Given the foundation's financial cushion, we're leaning more towards the... technical problem

👉 Twitter at a crossroads

You've probably seen it, Elon Musk has set his sights on buying... Twitter. After acquiring a 9.3% stake in the social network, which has 400 million users (including us 😎 ), the richest man in the world now wants to take 100% control. And that's just the beginning! While we still don't know exactly what Elon wants to do with it - apart from a few changes like allowing tweets to be edited after the fact - his interest intrigues us on several counts. Firstly, because Musk has always positioned his companies as pioneers. PayPal was a pioneer in online payments, Tesla in electric cars and SpaceX in space. Twitter could thus be one in Web3 and cryptos, especially as the network has already set the standard with several features such as tips in BTC and ETH or profile photos in NFT... All that remains is to convince the Twitter board, which is fiercely rejecting his advances for the time being...

👉 Lazarus, still behind a hack?

The people responsible for the spectacular hacking of the Axie Infinity play-to-earn game have probably been found. According to the US Treasury, the hackers who stole a $600 million (oops ) jackpot on 23 March are none other than members of... Lazarus. The name may not mean much to you, but this group is made up of particularly aggressive hacking geniuses. Very well organised, they have several major attacks on their record (the Wannacry ransomware in 2017 and the hacking of Sony Pictures in 2014) and are reputed to be very close to Pyongyang. The North Korean regime, under US sanctions and banned from the global financial system, is betting heavily on Lazarus to recover funds and keep its head above water...


"Only a major event could change everything" - Laëtitia Bonaventure, independent analyst

For the past few weeks, we've been feeling it, bitcoin has been playing with our nerves. One day it's climbing, the next it's correcting, without us really knowing in which direction it might go. According to Laetitia Bon, only a major event could actually break it out of its channel 📈📉.

👉 The "bearish"

We currently have the formation of a bullish channel that fits within a more global downtrend. It is still a little early to say, but we must remain cautious as it is quite possible that we are witnessing a "bear flag", a bearish continuation pattern as you can see on the diagram below.

The Bitcoin price since August 2021:

As long as we don't break this channel downwards, i.e. the level at the bottom of the channel (around 39,000 dollars), we can breathe easy! When we talk about a breakout, we mean a closing price below the channel, not just a wick as we've seen in recent days.

👉 The "bullish"

The $45,000 level still remains a key level, but I have the impression that without a change in context or major catalysts, we're going to find it hard to push to higher levels or hold above them.

👉 What to expect in the coming weeks

For now, from a technical point of view, we could have a bounce towards the top of the channel with a return towards 45,000-47,000 dollars, as long as we maintain the small channel perfectly. That said, if we take a global view, the crypto market is fairly dependent on 'risky' assets like the equity markets, and the Nasdaq in particular. So the issue is not just a technical one. Geopolitical tensions and inflation also play a major role in the development of the market in general (including risky assets), which are dependent on many factors. In reality, only a major event, such as a change in central bank policy, could change everything and really move the market. Up or down.


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Important events for the next 7 days

Until 25 April. The conference season is in full swing. A week after the Paris Blockchain Week Summit (PBWS), Amsterdam's Devconnect opened its doors this Monday (18) for an event that will run until next Monday (25 April). This crypto mecca hosts independent projects built on the Ethereum protocol. A few big names were expected to be available there, including... Vitalik Buterin. Learn more.

Wednesday. The law firm ORWL is holding the first edition of "Unchain The Law" this Wednesday evening at the Espace Cléry (2nd arrondissement in Paris), a competition on the legal and tax issues surrounding cryptos. This NFT event is organised in conjunction with Sorare and The Sandbox. Of the hundred or so students who took part in the first round, five won the right to argue an NFT-related issue for 10 minutes. Sounds promising! Learn more.

Thursday. The Assas Legal Innovation association is organising a webinar on the subject of NFTs with this question: "NFTs, an unidentified legal object?". The online conference, co-organised with law firm Baker McKenzie, is open to all (6pm-7pm). Speakers will include Faustine Fleuret, President of Adan (Association for the Development of Digital Assets) and the 'crypto' Member of Parliament for Paris, Pierre Person. Find out more.


Tomorrow on The Big Whale Premium: The (long) interview with the boss of Binance 😎

Changpeng Zhao, or "CZ", needs no introduction. In just a few years, the boss of Binance, which boasts over 80 million customers worldwide, has established himself as a key figure in the ecosystem (and not just because he has 5.6 million followers on Twitter). While in Paris for PBWS, the Chinese billionaire gave us some time to talk about a number of subjects.

One hour isn't enough time to cover everything, but The Big Whale managed to ask him quite a few questions. We obviously talked about Binance's ambitions in Europe and France. But that's not all. We also took the opportunity to talk to him about the future of the sector, what could prevent Europe from becoming a leader in Web3 (the banks take the cake) and also what's happening in China, a subject he never mentions... 🐳

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