TBW Free #3: Bitcoin's moment of truth

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This week's news ๐Ÿง 

๐Ÿ‘‰ Binance, a bank like any other

As a new wave of sanctions has just hit Russia, the world's leading crypto platform has been quick to restrict its services in the country. Russian accounts with more than $10,000 in cryptos will no longer be able to be topped up or used for investment. Only withdrawals will be allowed. "Although these measures are potentially restrictive for Russian citizens, Binance must continue to implement these sanctions," said its boss Changpeng Zhao on Thursday. An intervention that has caused some purists in crypto, who are very attached to freedom, to howl, but which should rather please the regulators who scrutinise every move of the group that claims more than 80 million customers worldwide... ย 

๐Ÿ‘‰ Stripe accelerates on cryptos



Stripe is switching to cryptos. On Friday, the online payment giant announced a partnership with Twitter to allow some of the social network's content creators to be paid in UDSC, the second-largest stablecoin dollar. The news didn't cause much of a stir, but it's an important step for the American-Irish company, for two main reasons: firstly, because Twitter is only the first in a long list of companies that will be using this system (which uses the Polygon blockchain to start with), and above all because Stripe itself will be handling the management of the cryptos (storage and transfers). To put it plainly, all businesses that want to offer their customers the option of receiving cryptos will have a turnkey solution.

๐Ÿ‘‰ Twitter's new life

We told you about it last week, and it's now official: Elon Musk is going to buy Twitter. After 15 days of intense negotiations, the Tesla boss has managed to convince the social network's main shareholders to accept his offer ($44 billion). Although the billionaire's plans are not yet known, they are likely to concern issues relating to freedom of expression, as well as the launch of new services to make Twitter a more innovative social network. The group, which already offers a number of services such as tips in bitcoins and ethers, could go even further by integrating other cryptos such as... dogecoin. In any case, that's the bet of some who have seen this cryptocurrency rise by more than 25% in two days.

๐Ÿ‘‰ Bitcoin for US retirees

In the US, retirement is a personal matter. Americans are planning their financial future themselves (for better or worse) by putting whatever they want as a product in their savings plan, the famous "401k": stocks, real estate, and soon... bitcoin. Asset manager Fidelity, which works with 23,000 companies, is going to offer all the employees of the companies it works with the chance to put part of their nest egg into the biggest cryptocurrency on the planet. Is such a system imaginable in France? It seems very complicated with our pay-as-you-go system, but there's nothing to stop you saving in bitcoin on a personal basis.

You want more? You need the cream of the crypto news ahead of time?


"I'm betting on a bullish recovery", by CryptOdin, independent analyst and trader

Where is bitcoin going? that's the question we've all been asking ourselves in recent weeks. And even though I don't have a crystal ball, I can still say that it is still in an uptrend. It continues to print higher highs and higher lows than its predecessors (on a monthly basis). This is a sign that all is well... for the time being!

On the other hand, if this uptrend breaks, the price could return to areas not revisited since the end of 2020. This demand zone is identified on the chart between $10,200 and $13,700.

Inversely, if the price continues its trend, we could consider the current phase as a re-accumulation sequence within an uptrend. As such, we could prepare for a bullish scenario with a new all-time high (currently $69,000).

Bitcoin in monthly view since 2018:

Before entering one of these scenarios, there are many intermediate zones. Let's switch to the weekly view to identify them:

The price is currently in an area of demand that corresponds to the 37,000 - - - area. This area is not insignificant: it was the impetus for the last uptrend seen between July and November 2021. There is a selling zone between $49,000 and $52,000. It will act as resistance to reject the price. In the event it is breached, it would allow us to go after the established highs.

Let's now zoom in on the 3-day view:

There are several distinct sequences:

1- Impetus for the movement ๐Ÿ’ฅ

On 21 July, the Bitcoin price rebounded very violently from a low of $29,500. The price soared by 45% in just a few days and never looked back. It is therefore a zone that has been used to take profits on positions against the market. It generated a great deal of liquidity (notably with the liquidation of short positions).

2- Trend change ๐Ÿ“ˆ

This sudden increase enabled the price to exceed its former local high (at $41,300). This is what caused the structure to change from "bearish" to "bullish".

3- Retest ๐Ÿ‘Œโ€

The market probed and validated this trend change by coming to retest this $41,300 area in September.

4- Loss of structure ๐Ÿ“‰

After 135% growth and a new ATH, Bitcoin showed its first sign of weakness by losing its last low at the end of November 2021. This sequence changed its structure.

5- Back on the impulse ๐Ÿ˜…

The only area that remained unrevisited for all this time was the impulse of this great bull move. This has been the case since the rebound to $33,000 in January 2022, leading to the stabilisation phase we are now observing. The movements are more horizontal than vertical, a sign of accumulation. A range is therefore forming between $36,500 for the low boundary and $44,500 for the high.

The movement at the end of March broke this range on the upside, leading to a recovery from the last established high. This therefore gives us two hypotheses on which we can speculate:

  • The price is resuming its uptrend and we are looking for an entry point. This point will be in the area between $37,500 and $40,000.
  • The price has made an upward deviation from this range, and the price will re-enter the range. In this case, we can expect a fall to the opposite boundary at $36,500.

We are therefore assuming a bullish recovery, or a continuation of the range. For my part, I'll play the first hypothesis with a target at $46,000 as a minimum.


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