TBW Free #4: Watch out for the Fed

Read all about it in The Big Whale's fourth free newsletter.

4 May 2022

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THE BIG NEWS

This week's news 🧠

👉 The French appetite for cryptos

It's one of the questions that keeps coming up when we talk about cryptos: Who is buying them and, more importantly, how many are they? In February, Blockchain Partner (KPMG) published the first survey on the subject in France with this impressive result: 8% of French people - adults - have already bought cryptocurrencies. A figure that provoked much comment, but which is confirmed by a new study published on 3 May by Sia Partners. According to the French consultancy, which surveyed 1,819 people, 9.6% of French adults have already bought cryptocurrencies! Also according to Sia Partners, 10% of those questioned, who have not yet invested, say they intend to do so. We'll be keeping a close eye on the 3rd survey. 👀

👉 Goldman Sachs breaks a taboo

Since it was founded in 1869, Goldman Sachs has always been a pioneer, and it clearly has no intention of stopping. A few days ago, the American investment bank became the first to grant credit secured by... bitcoin. As of yesterday, we know that it was Coinbase that obtained this loan in dollars against the deposit of a certain amount in bitcoins. And don't imagine you'll be able to go to your bank tomorrow and negotiate a loan by bringing it crypto 😎. Goldman Sachs is not just anyone's bank. It's reserved for the very wealthy. Pending further transactions, the signal is truly significant. Other institutions could in turn try this kind of experiment...

👉 Crypto.com caught up with reality

It's a cold shower for Crypto.com users! The application known for its generous cashbacks when you use your Visa payment card has decided to cut back. From 1 June, Ruby cardholders will no longer receive 2% cashback, but just 0.5%... All cards are affected, and there will also be a cap on monthly rewards and a reduction in staking revenue. The Singapore-based start-up justified this decision by saying that it would "ensure the long-term sustainability of the company". Naturally, the community did not take kindly to this change, pointing out that the company should perhaps have spent less on marketing. In the space of just a few months, Crypto.com has signed sponsorship contracts with the organisers of the World Cup in Qatar, Paris Saint-Germain and Formula 1, and has also taken on the naming of the Staple Center in Los Angeles (worth $700 million over 10 years). The risk for the company is that it will drive away its loyal users at a time when Celsius and Nexo are introducing their own payment cards. In the meantime, the price of CRO, Crypto.com's token, has plummeted: -20% in just a few days.

👉 Bored Apes going from strength to strength

Are you familiar with Bored Apes? In the space of a year, these NFTs of totally bonkers apes 🙉 have become a real phenomenon, and not just because we're talking about the most expensive "collection" in the industry (around $4 billion). Alongside NFT, Yuga Labs, the studio behind 'Apes', is already working on the sequel. A few weeks ago, it launched the Apecoin, the currency of its future metaverse, and on 30 April Yuga Labs sold its first 55,000 plots of land. The deal raised more than $300 million. What's next? Yuga Labs, which is already valued at several billion dollars, wants nothing less than to create an entertainment empire around its monkeys. The first project is already in the pipeline, with US crypto giant Coinbase announcing a film trilogy in April.

👉 Which country will adopt bitcoin next?

When El Salvador made bitcoin its legal tender in September 2021, many rightfully wondered about President Nayib Bukele's motives. Was it just a marketing stunt or a genuine political decision? The other question was whether other countries would follow suit. Eight months on, the Central African Republic has just provided the answer: the country has become the second in the world to adopt bitcoin alongside the CFA franc. One of the main reasons for this decision is that the country of 5 million inhabitants is having difficulty managing the influx of money from the diaspora. In the wake of this announcement, Panamanian and Cameroonian politicians have hinted that their countries may also jump ship.

THE BIG ANALYSIS

"The party's over... for now" (By Nicolas Chéron, market strategist for ZoneBourse)

2022 is a bad year for many asset classes including cryptos, and I get the impression that the period of uncertainty we are experiencing is going to last for some time. 2020 and 2021 were exceptional years on all levels: massive monetary injections, stimulus plans, cheques sent to the people, which generated hyper-speculation and stellar performances.

Except that period is over. Inflation caused by multiple factors (powerful economic recovery, supply chain disruptions due to Covid, rising commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine...) has forced central banks to switch from "ultra-accommodating" mode (easing) to its opposite (tightening). In short, the party is over... at least for the time being.

In the coming months, the Fed will gradually withdraw from the market and raise rates. Europe is likely to follow suit later, albeit much more timidly - as usual. In other words, the flows that allow the most risk-sensitive assets to rise will dry up. In fact, the phenomenon has already begun. That's why I wouldn't be surprised to see a fluctuation band of between $30,000 and $50,000 for several months, or even several quarters.

August.The Big Whale is on BFM Business every Monday and Thursday from 4.35pm. You can replay our appearances from The ticket office for If inflation falls back, China reopens, Russia pulls back, the economy holds up, companies deliver, consumers don't flinch and central banks become less insistent on monetary tightening (and the groundhog puts the chocolate in the tinfoil), and prices finally break above the MM200 and $48,000, then perhaps I'll revise my scenario of a range (at best) for the coming quarters. In the meantime, have a good weekend and see you very soon. and It's a bit like the whale in the aquarium: they're impossible to miss! Stablecoins are the largest digital asset class in the ecosystem with $188 billion in capitalisation, up 524% since January 2021. There is a huge variety of them: centralised ones, those backed by decentralised collateral, algorithms, backed ones that are stable but do not reflect any currency, etc. In the Premium edition, we've got THE report for you to find out all about them.Mon Livret C is a Lyon-based start-up offering savings products (liquid and performing at 5%) based on decentralised finance. They are looking for a CRM and Community Manager. This position involves animating communities on social networks and the customer base, with relevant graphic creations. Tomorrow on The Big Whale Premium: The big report on stablecoins 🔥👉 Mon Livret C - CRM & Community Manager (internship / work-study)THE BIG TEASINGTHE BIG JOBWhether Satoshi Nakamoto admirers like it or not, all eyes will be on tomorrow evening's Federal Reserve meeting and the possible rise in its key rate. Currently set at between 0.25% and 0.50%, the rate could rise by a further half-point to curb US inflation (8.5% in March).Important events for the next 7 days 🗓️THE BIG AGENDASia Partners is a French consulting firm with offices in 18 countries (2,400 consultants). The position offered is that of senior consultant in the team dedicated to blockchain and cryptos to work on projects for large groups or start-ups. Fluency in French and English is essential. On the Fed, which is due to speak this Wednesday evening, I don't have a short-term analysis (too complicated), but a message for the weeks ahead: with bitcoin 20% lower, there would be buyers on bearish excess close to long-term support, and if we go up 20% we would quickly find the fundamental and technical lead cover (MM200 as on the CAC40 and Nasdaq). It doesn't make me dream, and I say that even though I'm invested in the stock market, but that's the impression I wanted to deliver.Wednesday. Sia Partners - Senior Consultant 👉 .Surfin BitcoinEach week. Contact last Thursday (Raphaël)Monday (Grégory) has just opened. The biggest Bitcoin event in France will be held in Biarritz on 25, 26 and 27 August. The Big Whale team will be there in full!Contact Want to work in Web3? These ads are for you 👋
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