The Big Whale Market Call - November 2025

Speakers

• André Dragosch - Head of Research, Bitwise Europe
• ‍Julien Liniger - CEO, Relai
• Aleksandar Bukovski - Analyst, The Big Whale
• Raphaël Bloch - Co-founder and Editor-in-Chief, The Big Whale

‍Bitcoin vs Gold: allies rather than rivals

• The two assets are part of the same move out of fiat and Treasuries into "hard assets".
• In 2025, gold outperformed Bitcoin, better correlated to monetary policy and lower rates.
• But the recovery in global liquidity and the economic cycle should allow Bitcoin to regain the lead.
• "They are playing on the same team," sums up André Dragosch. "But Bitcoin is technologically superior: rare, portable and verifiable."

Bitcoin's "IPO moment"

• Julian Liniger describes the current period as Bitcoin's "IPO moment": early adopters sell to institutional investors.
• Almost 400,000 BTC (≈2% of the offering) have been sold by holders over 10 years old, absorbed by ETFs and corporate treasuries.
• Despite this selling pressure, the price remains above $100,000, a sign of deep institutional demand.
• Liniger anticipates a lull in the next 6-9 months, paving the way for a new bullish leg in 2026.

Institutional vs retail adoption

• Institutional adoption is structural and rational: portfolio diversification, strategic allocation.
• Retail remains emotional and wait-and-see, waiting to "believe again" after the symbolic $100,000 threshold.
• In time, the meeting of retail FOMO and institutional accumulation could create an explosive market phase.
• Relay data:
  • Individuals buy dips, not rises.
  • Volumes are multiplied by 4 on down days.

The end of the halving cycle

• André Dragosch: "The four-year cycle is dead."
• The impact of halvings is now marginal (<1% of annual supply), largely dominated by institutional flows (~1 million BTC/year).
• Bitcoin is now a macro asset, correlated to global liquidity and economic cycles rather than mining.
• Flows to ETF/ETPs are structurally positive but cyclically sensitive, reinforcing Bitcoin's integration into mainstream finance.

Dominance and market outlook

• Bitcoin's dominance remains close to 60% and should remain so until 2026.
• "Alt seasons" will still exist, but brief and concentrated.
• The arrival of ETFs on other assets could cause occasional rotations, without challenging Bitcoin's structural dominance.
• Julian Liniger: "Over five years, most altcoins lose value against Bitcoin."

Stablecoins: the gateway to Bitcoin

• Stablecoins and Bitcoin are not opposites: they complement each other.
• Stablecoins serve as a bridge between fiat and crypto, simple, liquid and dollar-backed.
• As users seek to preserve their purchasing power, liquidity will migrate to Bitcoin.
• Julian Liniger: "In emerging markets, stablecoins are the gateway; Bitcoin is the destination."

Conclusion

Bitcoin is moving from speculative to macro reserve asset status. The year 2025 marks the maturity of the market: redistribution of positions, sustainable institutional flows and global financial integration. The next phase will not be one of noise, but of consolidation and depth.