The Big Whale Market Call - October 2025

Speakers

• André Dragosch - Head of Research, Bitwise Europe
• Theo Chapman - Institutional Partnerships, Babylon Labs
• Aleksandar Bukovski - Analyst, The Big Whale
• Raphaël Bloch - Co-Founder and Editor-in-Chief, The Big Whale

Stablecoins & Liquidity

• The stablecoin market capitalisation has doubled in 12 months to ~$300bn, and could reach $1T within two years.
• Adoption now led by banks and financial institutions (SocGen, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan).
• Stablecoins have become the backbone of crypto liquidity, linking fiat and digital assets.
• Increased flows into stablecoins could spill over into Bitcoin and other crypto markets.

Macro & Fed

• The Fed began its rate cut cycle in September, amid rising inflation - back to financial repression.
• Decreasing real yields signal clear monetary easing, historically positive for Bitcoin and other scarce assets.
• Global yield curves steepen, suggesting faster liquidity growth in major economies (US, EU, Japan).
• Global money supply expansion supports the medium-term bullish scenario for Bitcoin.

Babylon strategy

• Babylon (7.1 B TVL, 57K BTC staked) transforms Bitcoin from an idle asset into a productive asset - fully on-chain and non-custodial.
• BTC holders can generate yield or borrow stablecoins without leaving the Bitcoin network.
• New product: Bitcoin Trustless Vaults, allowing on-chain borrowing against BTC to fund fiat trades or dividends without selling BTC.
• Growing adoption among ETF issuers, miners, custodians and funds; Babylon could become the reference layer for Bitcoin-based institutional finance.

Bitcoin vs Gold

• Gold outperformed Bitcoin YTD as investors anticipated more accommodative monetary policy.
• Bitwise expects a turnaround in Q4, Bitcoin could regain leadership over gold.
• Institutional demand for Bitcoin far exceeds new supply (7-8x 2025 mining output).
• Exchange balances continue to decline, reinforcing the narrative of supply deficit and rising BTC prices.

Institutional Cycle & Outlook

• The traditional 4-year halving cycle is losing relevance; market dynamics are now macro and demand-driven.
• The impact of halving (~164K BTC/year) is less than institutional demand (~1M BTC in 2025).
• Institutional and corporate treasuries reduce volatility and limit future crypto winters.
• Bitwise expects the bull market to continue until 2026-27, supported by liquidity, monetary easing and the arrival of sovereign and institutional buyers.

Bitcoin vs Altcoins (Q4 2025)

• Rotation expected among majors: Ethereum and Solana could outperform in the short term in a risk-on environment.
• Bitcoin remains positioned for a strong Q4, historically its best quarter, fuelled by global liquidity and institutional flows.
• The altcoin cycle is likely to be more selective than in the past, driven by fundamentals and real return.