Circle's quarter was a token sale. The stablecoin business held still.

For asset managers who hold Circle shares, bank digital-asset teams and anyone valuing listed companies, the headline of Circle's third quarter is strong and the detail is thinner. Circle reported on 4 November. Every comparison below is year over year (the third quarter of 2026 against 2025) unless stated. Revenue and reserve income came to $865 million, up 17%, and adjusted EBITDA to $317 million, up 85%.

Most of that growth is one line. Other revenue rose to $207 million from $28.5 million, and $182 million of it is revenue from the presale of ARC, the token of Circle's new Arc blockchain. Circle's presentation shows revenue and reserve income without the presale at $683 million, roughly 8% below last year, and adjusted EBITDA without it at $135 million, a fifth below last year's $171 million.

Three margins are in play. After $412 million of distribution, transaction and other costs, against $448 million a year ago, Circle kept $453 million, or 52% of revenue and reserve income (39.7% without the presale). The full-year guidance range of 41.7% to 43.7% refers to that measure. Adjusted EBITDA of $317 million is 70% of the $453 million, which is how Circle reaches its 70% margin (50% without the presale, against 59% a year ago), but 37% of total revenue and reserve income. Net income of $226 million is 26% of revenue.

What matters for those readers is that guidance is unchanged, and that it includes the token. Circle still targets 40% compound annual growth in USDC circulation through the cycle, full-year other revenue of $310 million to $330 million, and that margin range. The release says the last two include ARC presale revenue. The base is flat. Average circulation rose 8% to $73.3 billion, but the quarter ended at $73.9 billion, unchanged on the year, and reserve income fell 8% to $658 million as the return on reserves dropped 61 basis points to 3.54%.

Circle minted $104 billion of USDC, up 31%, and redeemed $104 billion, up 54%. Over the 30 days to 6 November, DefiLlama shows USDC supply down 5.1% to $70.5 billion and Tether's down 3.6%. Circle's presentation shows where the balances sit. At quarter-end 31% of USDC was on Coinbase, up from 24% a year earlier, and 19% was on Circle's own platform, up from 14%. That is about $22.9 billion on Coinbase against $17.7 billion, so Coinbase's balances did not shrink. The share on neither platform fell from 62% to 50%, roughly $46 billion to $37 billion. These dollar figures are our arithmetic on Circle's percentages. Coinbase keeps the reserve income on USDC held in its own products, as we set out in September, so that growth carries the highest partner cost. Why holders stopped minting is open: weak markets are one explanation, and holders choosing to stay in bank dollars is another. The data cannot separate the two.

Volume is there: USDC's onchain transaction volume grew 49% to $13.9 trillion, though Circle's presentation labels it unadjusted, per Visa Onchain Analytics. Allium counted $482 billion of payments within $97.9 trillion of raw stablecoin transfers from January to September. Research estimates put bots and other non-organic activity at about 76% of stablecoin volume in the first quarter, with USDC at 85% of the bot-driven part. Methods differ. Circle earns on balances, so that volume did not reach the income statement.

The market noticed. Circle closed down 8.7% on 5 November, as the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% and Coinbase 9.7%, so much of the move belongs to crypto-linked stocks as a group.

The Big Whale's take

A spread business on a flat float reported strong growth because of a one-off token sale. Can Circle keep growing without paying partners more? Will the presale become revenue that stays, given that Circle lists "possible repayment obligations if key launch milestones are not achieved" among its risks?

Circle's best card is ARC. If Arc brings USDC into circulation without distribution partners, the partner share shrinks. It is early. Circle's presentation puts USDC on Arc at $1.1 billion on 30 October, about 1.5% of circulation by our arithmetic, and over the year Coinbase's share of USDC grew faster than Circle's own platform.